‘The two parties could not be more different in the way that their nomination contests are playing out.’ — Paul Snell Jr., University of Minnesota political science instructor and graduate candidate.
By FORRESTER PACK/Murphy News Service
With a little less than a year until the 2016 presidential election, and the national campaign season well underway, Murphy News Service interviewed Paul Snell Jr. of the Political Science Department. The graduate student instructor and Ph.D. candidate discussed aspects of the national election and its local variables.
Murphy News Service: Does this election season stand out to you at all? Are there ways this 2016 campaign differs from past campaigns you’ve witnessed?
Snell: “The 2016 presidential cycle definitely stands out. The two parties could not be more different in the way that their nomination contests are playing out. The Democrats seem to have made retaining the White House their prime directive. As a result, the Democratic contest is almost an extended coronation ceremony for Hillary Clinton as her support within the party amongst crucial subgroups (such as women, blacks, and working-class white voters) is much more uniformly strong than it was in 2008. None of the other candidates have a large natural constituency that they can rely on, nor are they competitive amongst crucial subgroups that Clinton has a lock on. None of the other candidates, also, have her credentials, nor can they match Secretary Clinton’s gravitas as her recent debate performance and Benghazi committee testimony strongly evinced. The general election is another story, but the Democratic nomination is Clinton’s to lose.
“The Republican race, however— is stranger than fiction. They tend to choose the candidate with the strongest level of establishment support as their standard bearer for the nomination (ex: Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, George W. Bush in 2000, John McCain in 2008, and Romney in 2012). Romney’s difficulties in securing the nomination in 2012 after a series of one-night stand front-runners (such as Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich) may have been a portent of things to come, but no one could have predicted what we are witnessing today. The enduring ascendancy of Donald Trump and Ben Carson, outsiders with no electoral experience and questionable conservative as well as religious commitments, is simply baffling. Analysts will be trying to figure out what’s happening in this race for a long time and also once this race is long over.”
MNS: What are two or three key issues that you think will drive voter turnout in 2016?
Snell: “The top of the ballot will drive turnout. More people will show up to vote because it’s a presidential election. This is a long established fact. Depending on who the Republican and Democratic nominees are for president may increase turnout amongst specific groups. Marco Rubio may be able to drive up Latino turnout on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton may increase turnout for women, for example.
“This fact does not negate the importance of specific issues and local candidacies, as the context will be more important to those specific issues and races. There is an open seat for the House of Representatives in Minnesota’s Second Congressional District, as John Kline (R) is retiring. Local issues will surely be an issue in that campaign. As for broader state issues the Minnesota Legislative Pay Council Amendment ballot initiative (allowing a council to set state legislators salaries) may interest some voters. The nature of the contest (a presidential election cycle), however, is the more dominant driver of turnout than specific issues as a general rule.”
MNS: Do you think there are aspects of this campaign season and the 2016 election itself that will directly impact faculty and students on the U campus? If so, how?
Snell: “There’s an ironic tendency on the part of voters. They tend to vote in presidential races, where their vote is less decisive, than in local races where their vote is more decisive and those offices affect their lives in more tangible ways. This is another way of saying that every election cycle is important and every race matters in some way, especially the “lower-tier” races. This could not be truer than the Minnesota state legislature races where all 201 seats are open for election, and partisan control of the legislature is up for grabs. The legislature, of course, allocates funding for the University, for example. Voters should choose carefully who they want setting those funding levels.”
Reporter Forrester Pack is studying journalism at the University of Minnesota.